Sorting Out the NL East

The NL East is by far the most competitive division in the league. In no other division are the first place and last place teams separated by a single-digit amount of games. For over a decade, the Braves have dominated the division. However, they seem more vulnerable this year than any year during their run of 13 consecutive division titles. Not to mention, the other teams have caught up with them and are threatening to end the streak. Even so, with all the teams in the division so even, it's tough to tell who will be the one to end the streak, if the streak is ended at all. I'll attempt to make sense of this mess by process of elimination: one by one, I'll try to whittle the NL East down to try to figure out who should win it this year. Here it goes:

First out: Phillies. It seems as though, every year, Philadelphia underachieves. In recent years, this has been attributed to the presence of Larry Bowa as the manager, but now with him out, we should realize that a large part of the underachievement might have been the players' fault more than we assumed. Although Bobby Abreu has lived up to the hype, Jim Thome, the other big bopper, has gone through a decline in production compared to other years. The pitching has also been shaky: the Phillies are 12th in the NL with a 4.70 ERA. The starters will have to step up even more now with the loss of Randy Wolf. Overall, the team is just way too inconsistant to win the division title. They may seem solid on paper, but they can't be this inconsistant and come away with a playoff spot.

Second out: Mets. It pains me to get them out so early. I was considering putting the Braves in this spot, but the tiebrakers were that the Braves seem to always overachieve and, head to head, they kill the Mets. In most spots, the Mets are a team of "almosts," in that they're close to being really strong in those spots, but they need to improve on one element there. Jose Reyes is one of the fastest players I've ever seen, but he doesn't get on base enough. Cliff Floyd can be really good when healthy, but he gets injured often, though not yet this season (knock on wood). Also, with the exception of Pedro, the rotation can be very inconsistant. You never quite know what you're going to get from Glavine, Victor Zambrano, or Kaz Ishii every time they take the mound. And, of course, the bullpen is in shambles. The first priority for the Mets should be to improve the bullpen. If they can do that in future years while also making strides in other areas of the game, they might turn out to be a real contender in a few years.

Third to go: Braves. This was tough for me as well. Yes, I know, the Braves have history working for them (13 straight division titles). Again, they often overachieve (I think it's been something like 3 stright years that I've picked them to not come in first). Not to mention, Bobby Cox is most likely the best manager in the game. However, what it comes down to is that the Braves are a team made up of too many rookies. I do think that Cox and some of the older players on the roster (ie Chipper Jones and John Smoltz) will help them along, but this wont be enough to take a 14th straight title.

One last team out: Nationals. Since the season started, they have been surpassing all expectations as they sit atop the division today. I would like to see this team succeed at this rate for a while longer putting them in the same class as some of the other division leaders that have been contenders for a few years now (remember, this team was the Expos last year). I certainly do think that they have the capability to win the NL East as they've had both solid pitching and solid hitting all year. However, in my opinion, the team that I've put ahead of them is the class of the division.

And that team is....the Marlins. I picked them to win the division before the season began, and I'm sticking with my pick. They are just an overall solid group. They have a very nice lineup, with Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo heading it and up and coming star Miguel Cabrera and big bopper Carlos Delgado making up the meat of the order. The pitching staff is also excellent. Dontrelle Willis has been lights out this year. The rest of the pitching staff, consisting of A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett among others, also has the ability to be fantastic.

Well, there you have it: an attempt to make sense out of the tightest division in baseball. Just one of the many possibilities...
-Adam

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