Notes and Predictions for the Playoffs

So the end of the regular season is finally over and the playoff window is set. Personally, I'm pretty dissapointed with how everything shook out. First of all, there was a possible three way tie between Cleveland, Boston, and the Yankees. This would've been the first three way tie ever (as far as i know). I was really rooting for that to happen, but it didn't, of course. The thing that annoyed me a little more was how the AL East got determined. I still don't fully understand how it works out, just that it has to do with the Yankees and Red Sox head-to-head record, and please don't try to explain it to me, because I will just become more confused. The MLB should do something about that rule; they should't use tiebrakers to determine the divisional championships. I'm also upset that the media never really mentioned the possibility that the Yankees would only need to win one of the games against Boston if Cleveland lost two games to Chicago, but that's the media. I could write a whole post on them, but I'll save something like that for the offseason.

One more thing before I get to the actual playoffs, I'd like to talk about how the Yankees are upset with Texas for taking out their starters, allowing the Angels to make a comeback win. This win gave Anaheim homefield advantage against the Yankees for the first round. Now, some people involved with the Yankee franchise, including Alex Rodriguez, are saying that Buck Showalter shouldn't have taken his starters out since New York was still relying on them for homefield advantage. John Sterling, the incredibly biased and somewhat clueless radio announcer, even gave a small speach on how it's a team's "duty" to try to win a game that could help determine who makes the playoffs (though it actually wasn't determining who made the playoffs, but how the teams were seeded). First of all, the reason the Yankees don't have homefield for the first round is largely the Yankees themselves. Going into the final game, the Yankees had a one game lead on Anaheim, but New York lost its last game as the Angels made their comeback win against Texas. If the Yankees had won that final game, we wouldn't even be talking about this. Instead, the Yankees and Angels ended the season tied and Anaheim had the head-to-head tiebreaker, so they got the better seeding. Secondly, it's Showalter's choice to decide whether or not he wanted his starters playing. It's not his job to keep them in just because another team needs him to win. Yes, it's entirely possible that Showalter, who has had sour feelings towards the Yankees ever since his firing after the 1995 season, purposely sat his starters so New York would be in a worse position for the postseason. However, either way, the Yankees cannot be complaining about another team's decisions.

OK, now that that's out of the way, lets move on to the playoff matchups. I'll start with the NL.

Padres vs. Cardinals
Don't let their NL West Division championship fool you, the Padres are nothing to be very excited about. They narrowly avoided becoming the first team to win a division with a losing record (they finished 82-80). Their pitching, lead by Jake Peavy, can be impressive at times, but their offense can easily be just as dismal. St. Louis, on the other hand, had the best record in baseball (100-62) and was the only team to reach 100 wins this year. Their pitching, though porous at times, is generally strong, especially when it comes to their surprise ace, Chris Carpenter. Their offense resembles that of an AL team, loaded with power hitters like Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds, but also including small ball types like David Eckstein. The Cardinals are far and away the better team in this matchup, and nobody should be surprised to see San Diego swept.
Prediction-Cardinals over Padres in 3

Astros vs. Braves
As they did last year, Houston went through a long slump, specifically in their offense, to start the season, then picked up their play a month or so before the All-Star Break to come back and win the Wild Card. Though they have had enough offense to bring themselves back from a tough start, their offense has stalled. Morgan Ensberg, who provided most of their offensive firepower for the season, struggled somewhat down the stretch. Their pitching has been much better, however. They have a strong rotation headed by Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettite. Additionally, Brad Lidge is one of the league's premier closers. However, they wont be as strong in the playoffs as they were last year, mainly due to the fact that they no longer have Carlos Beltran, who had a historic postseason a year ago. Houston's success last year due to him could lead people to overrate Houston here. The Braves have been strong throughout the year, but streaky at the same time. They have a potentially strong rotation consisting of Tim Hudson and John Smoltz, though they have bullpen problems. They also have a powerful lineup, with MVP candidate Andruw Jones as its leader. They are a well-rounded team in generall, but their postseason success could depend on their rookies, specifically Jeff Francoeur (and yes, I spelled that right all by myself). He was a great addition to the Braves for the time that he did play, but he struggled down the stretch. This will be a very interesting series to watch, but in the end, I think Houston's pitching will come out on top. The Astros will go on to face St. Louis in the NLCS.
Prediction-Astros over Braves in 5

NLCS Prediction-Astros over Cardinals in 6
It's all about the pitching.

Now for the AL matchups (which are much more interesting, in my opinion)

Yankees vs. Angels
This will be a very tough matchup. Both teams are evenly matched. The Yankees have the edge offensively. Their offense can go through slumps because they have so many power hitters, but they do have a very potent lineup. The Angels, however, have stronger pitching, both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. As I see it, there are a lot of variables for the Yankees to overcome in order to win this series. Mike Mussina is still recovering from an injury and it is not certain if he can pitch at a level anywhere near his potential. Jason Giambi has gone on long hot streaks and cold streaks throughout the year. It is impossible to tell if he'll be up or down during the playoffs. Also, with the exception of Mariano Rivera, the bullpen has been all over the place. I haven't seen Embree pitch for a while, Tanyon Sturtze is streaky, and Tom Gordon often fails in pressure situations, especially in the playoffs. With such a shaky rotation as well, the Yankees will need a couple very good starts to move onto the next rounds, specifically from Randy Johnson. The Angels are one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. Solid fielding, timely hitting, a solid rotation, and baseball's best bullpen. I'd love to see another Yankee vs. Red Sox ALCS, but I don't see the Yankees making it past Anaheim.
Prediction-Angels over Yankees in 5

Red Sox vs. White Sox
This is the most interesting matchup out of all of them. The White Sox were the premier team in the AL for the majority of the year, but they struggled down the stretch. The question of whether or not they will be albe to regain their midseason form will depend on their pitching. At their peak, Mark Buehrle was the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young and Jon Garland was pitching very well. As the season progressed, Buehrle and Garland began to struggle, and this was the main reason why the White Sox weren't winning as much. Jose Contreras was able to pick up some of the slack, but the struggles of the rotation were still noticable. Not to mention, Dustin Hermanson, their closer, began to have lower back problems down the stretch. The Red Sox have not had solid pitching all year. Curt Schilling, their ace, was out for most of the year. Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield both had fairly good years, but were inconsistent, especially Clement. However, their offense has been great, as usual. They should be able to take advantage of Chicago's struggling rotation and bullpen and win this series. The Chicago offense is not especially strong. They will be able to get a good amount of runs on the weak Boston pitching, but not enough to match the offense of the Red Sox.
Prediction-Red Sox over White Sox in 4

ALCS Prediction-Angels over Red Sox in 7
What it comes down to is that the Angels are solid in every aspect of the game.

World Series Prediction-Angels over Astros in 6
The Angels will be able to nip the Astros pitchers for a few runs while the weak Astros offense will have a hard time against Anaheim's pitching.