Predictions for the 2006 MLB Season
Hey everyone. I know my blog's been dead for a few months now, but I figured I'd use it as a way to get my predictions out. Who knows, maybe I'll even start the blog up again, even if just during the summer (but I'm not sure about that).
If MLB's past five seasons have taught us anything, it's that there is in fact a degree of parity in the league. Yes, there will always be the big-market teams like the Yankees who manage to make it to the postseason every year. Likewise, there will always be the small-market teams like the Devil Rays that can't make it out of the cellar of their respective divisions. However, amidst the constants of the league, there always seem to be several teams that have unexpected seasons.
Lets take into consideration each World Series winner since 2001 and the results of each champion's previous season (with exception of 2004, during which the big-spending Red Sox finally broke the curse). Last year, the White Sox won the championship for the first time since 1917. In 2004, Chicago finished second in the AL Central with a recdord of 83-79, equalling a modest winning percentage of .512. Last year, they improved to 99-63 (.611 winning percentage), finishing on top of their division. Their winning percentage rose by .099 between 2004 and 2005. In 2002, Florida finished just 3.5 games out of last place in the NL East with a 79-83 record and a .488 winning percentage. In their championship season of 2003, they throttled to second place with a record of 91-71 and a winning percentage of .562, an improvement of .074. The Anaheim Angels finished with a 75-87 record (.463 winning percentage), good for third place in the four-team AL West. With a 99-63 record and a .611 winning percentage (a whopping .148 improvement), they made the playoffs as the AL Wild Card and went on to beat San Francisco in seven games in the World Series. Though the champion Diamondbacks of 2001 had a winning percentage increase of only .043 from the previous season, they had come into existence only four seasons before their championship.
Looking at these results, we can pull away one crucial fact: the winner of the World Series is not necessarily a powerhouse or a star-studded team. Each World Series winner since 2001, with the exception of the Red Sox in 2004, was not expected to win the championship because of their lack of stars. However, clearly, what constitutes a championship team in Major League Baseball is evolving. While teams like the Yankees throw millions of dollars at the best free agents to do their best at making their own team look like last year's All Star team, the teams that are filled with role players, strong pitching, and emerging young stars have the best shot at winning the World Series. Many people accuse the Yankees of "buying championships," but really all they're doing, is paying way too much to buy playoff spots. Anyone can spend hundreds of millions of dollars to create a playoff team, but you need to spend money wisely to build a championship team. The most important factor to winning a World Series is the ability to hit a hot streak in the postseason and ride it. Recent history has shown that these teams will be the teams with the most solid pitcing, not the most star-filled lineup.
As I mentioned, baseball's champions three major similarities are role players, strong pitching, and emerging young stars. High-payroll teams can still certainly make the playoffs, but the teams with these three characteristics have the greatest chance of winning the World Series. This is the general formula i used in making my predictions for this upcoming baseball season and how I came to a decision for my World Series prediction
AL East
If MLB's past five seasons have taught us anything, it's that there is in fact a degree of parity in the league. Yes, there will always be the big-market teams like the Yankees who manage to make it to the postseason every year. Likewise, there will always be the small-market teams like the Devil Rays that can't make it out of the cellar of their respective divisions. However, amidst the constants of the league, there always seem to be several teams that have unexpected seasons.
Lets take into consideration each World Series winner since 2001 and the results of each champion's previous season (with exception of 2004, during which the big-spending Red Sox finally broke the curse). Last year, the White Sox won the championship for the first time since 1917. In 2004, Chicago finished second in the AL Central with a recdord of 83-79, equalling a modest winning percentage of .512. Last year, they improved to 99-63 (.611 winning percentage), finishing on top of their division. Their winning percentage rose by .099 between 2004 and 2005. In 2002, Florida finished just 3.5 games out of last place in the NL East with a 79-83 record and a .488 winning percentage. In their championship season of 2003, they throttled to second place with a record of 91-71 and a winning percentage of .562, an improvement of .074. The Anaheim Angels finished with a 75-87 record (.463 winning percentage), good for third place in the four-team AL West. With a 99-63 record and a .611 winning percentage (a whopping .148 improvement), they made the playoffs as the AL Wild Card and went on to beat San Francisco in seven games in the World Series. Though the champion Diamondbacks of 2001 had a winning percentage increase of only .043 from the previous season, they had come into existence only four seasons before their championship.
Looking at these results, we can pull away one crucial fact: the winner of the World Series is not necessarily a powerhouse or a star-studded team. Each World Series winner since 2001, with the exception of the Red Sox in 2004, was not expected to win the championship because of their lack of stars. However, clearly, what constitutes a championship team in Major League Baseball is evolving. While teams like the Yankees throw millions of dollars at the best free agents to do their best at making their own team look like last year's All Star team, the teams that are filled with role players, strong pitching, and emerging young stars have the best shot at winning the World Series. Many people accuse the Yankees of "buying championships," but really all they're doing, is paying way too much to buy playoff spots. Anyone can spend hundreds of millions of dollars to create a playoff team, but you need to spend money wisely to build a championship team. The most important factor to winning a World Series is the ability to hit a hot streak in the postseason and ride it. Recent history has shown that these teams will be the teams with the most solid pitcing, not the most star-filled lineup.
As I mentioned, baseball's champions three major similarities are role players, strong pitching, and emerging young stars. High-payroll teams can still certainly make the playoffs, but the teams with these three characteristics have the greatest chance of winning the World Series. This is the general formula i used in making my predictions for this upcoming baseball season and how I came to a decision for my World Series prediction
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
They're the only team in the east with decent pitching. The signings will improve the team greatly.
2. New York Yankees
Their lineup is historic, but the pitching is, well, not. All of their games will have to be won 10-9.
3. Boston Red Sox
I like the Coco Crisp move, but the pitching is simply weak, and their best pitchers are injury prone.
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tampa Bay will definitely take a large step in the right direction this year, but they still have a ways to go.
5. Baltimore Orioles
A top heavy lineup and a weak pitching staff mean last place for Baltimore.
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
1. Chicago White Sox
This team will not be as good as last year's team, but the pitching will be strong enough.
2. Cleveland Indians
Very strong lineup, but where's the pitching? The rotation is weak and Bob Wickman is getting old.
3. Minnesota Twins
Thier pitching staff is solid as usual, but the lineup took a step back when Jaque Jones left.
4. Detroit Tigers
They could use a better bullpen, but don't be surprised to see them put pressure on the Twins or Indians.
5. Kansas City Royals
They're still awful, but at least the front office showed some life with some veteran signings.
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics
Role players (like Crosby), young stars (Swisher), and strong pitching (Harden, Street). Sound familiar?
2. Los Angeles Angels (that is their name, right?) **Wild Card**
Aging lineup and weak rotation (Colon is overrated) make for a step back this year.
3. Texas Rangers
They improved their pitching by adding Eaton and Otsuka, but more steps must be taken for improvement.
4. Seattle Mariners
They'll be a better team than in past years, but the huge Beltre signing still leaves a bad taste.
NL East
1. New York Mets
Very powerful team, but still shaky with injury possibilities. Don't be surprised to see the Braves win the east.
2. Atlanta Braves **Wild Card**
The rotation and the offense are very strong. If Renteria has a comeback year, watch out for Atlanta.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia is an improving team and could put pressure on the Mets and Braves, but there are still holes.
4. Washington Nationals
Last year's success was accomplished with smoke and mirrors. Even with Soriano, expect less.
5. Florida Marlins
Some young prospects on this team, but it's truly sad what's happened with Florida.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Won't be as dominant as in the past, but they'll be more than good enough to take the central.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Both the lineup and rotation are improving. If Ben Sheets can stay healthy, this is a very solid team.
3. Houston Astros
The offense is weaker and it seems less and less like Clemens will come back.
4. Chicago Cubs
If Prior and Wood could ever stay healthy for a whole season, the Cubs would truly be a top notch team.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Finally making some improvements with the likes of Sean Casey. Pittsburgh will be much better than in past years.
6. Cincinatti Reds
A very unsettled lineup and an awful pitching staff. The Reds could definitely be the worst team in baseball.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Improved offense with Garciaparra, improved pitching with Baez and Seo. Lowe will have a good season as well.
2. San Francisco Giants
Improving pitching (Schmidt should have a good year), but the lineup is iffy. The Bonds saga will depleat the team.
3. San Diego Padres
A .500 record will not be enough to win the division this year, not that the Padres will reach .500.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
An interesting team on the rise, but they still have many improvements to make.
5. Colorado Rockies
Some young players to watch, but the pitching, as always, is awful.
AL Playoffs
White Sox over Angels
Athletics over Blue Jays
Athletics over White Sox
NL Playoffs
Braves over Cardinals
Mets over Dodgers
Braves over Mets
World Series
Athletics over Braves
posted by adamh1289 at 9:40 PM
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